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I have taken the forecast information from the Annual Energy Outlook Figure A - Graph constructed from Table 1.

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One can see that the largest source of energy is petroleum. Natural gas and coal are close to tied for second place in US energy consumption. Renewables make up only a small part of US energy supply. If you define renewables as only the newer renewables wind and solarthen renewable energy supply is tiny, but growing rapidly from a small base. Note: In the sections that follow, the figures numbered with numbers are from the Annual Energy Outlook Forecast of US Total Energy Consumption According to Figure 1, the EIA expects coal, nuclear, myopia correction diagram myopia correction diagram, and liquids to remain close to flat towith renewables providing the majority of growth.

It includes substitutes of various kinds--including ethanol, coal to liquid, and natural gas liquids. We will see from later graphs that not all of these estimates seem reasonable. Clearly, if there are big cut-backs in fossil fuels because of carbon dioxide concerns, or because of issues with deepwater oil production, then EIA's forecasts are not correct.

Notice that the green renewables category shown at the top of own at the top of Figure 1 defines renewables broadly. According to Figure 1, production of renewables has changed very little since Going myopia correction diagram, the EIA expects the renewable band to grow, but still to remain small compared to fossil fuels. Biofuels the green band are expected to grow from myopia correction diagram tiny amount historically invisible until recentlyto a big band by The purple band represents US's own domestic oil production.

It has been declining so the band is getting narrower.

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Growing forward, this band myopia correction diagram to increase slightly in width--as we will see below, because of more deep-water oil production. Petroleum imports dark blue are expect to remain flat, and natural gas plant liquids a lower energy product are expected to grow.

Myopia correction diagram Oil Drum readers and staff members would say that all of the EIA forecasts for are likely high. We have seen how the estimates by government agencies of the oil spill proved to be too low.

Here, the government has a real desire to show a high number so that no one is too concerned about the futureso a person wouldn't be too surprised if there is a little or lot of fudging on the high side. Breakdown of Biofuels Figure B. According to this data, biofuels are expected to increase from 0.

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The biggest category both in and is US-produced ethanol. The forecast is that production will continue to increase, presumably mostly from cellulosic ethanol.

Another major source of growth is "Other biomass myopia correction diagram fuels", which includes fuels created using pyrolysis or using gasification.

A question a person might reasonably ask is whether there really is enough biomass to be making all of the liquid fuels from it some as cellulosic ethanol; some using pyrolysis or gasification.

Another question is whether the cost of these processes can be brought down to levels similar myopia correction diagram the price of gasoline. These processes are currently very expensive. Cellulosic ethanol goals to date have been missed. Robert Rapier of The Oil Drum points out that the technology for cellulosic ethanol is more than year old.

In his view, lack of success is not from lack of funding.

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The reason for the lack of success is instead,"fundamental based on physics, chemistry, and the nature of biomass"--in his view, producing cellulosic ethanol in quantity cheaply can't be done! Coal-to-liquids are included with biofuels, but even inare expected to be small 0. The forecasts is for an increase to a little over 6 million barrels a day. This is still low in comparison to US oil consumption of 19 million barrels a day, and in comparison to historical US myopia correction diagram oil production, which has been as high as myopia correction diagram.

The text page 75 indicates that a significant share of new production relates to deepwater. It also seems to reflect offshore locations recently added, which are now under a moratorium. In the short term, a vast majority of the increase comes from deepwater offshore fields. Fields that started producing in or are expected to start in the next few years include Great White, Norman, Myopia correction diagram, Gomez, Cascade, and Chinook. All are in water deeper than meters, and most are in the Central Gulf of Mexico.

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Production from those fields, combined with increased production from fields that started producing in andcontributes to the near-term myopia correction diagram in offshore production. Over the longer term, production from the continued development of other recent discoveries, as well as new discoveries, offsets production declines in older fields, resulting in an increase in production through Figure Removal of the Congressional moratorium on drilling in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, and Pacific regions of the Outer Continental Shelf also allows for more crude oil production from offshore areas in the Pacific afterin the Atlantic afterand in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico after [86].

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Lower 48 onshore production of crude oil continues to increase throughprimarily as a result of wider application of CO 2 EOR techniques. EOR makes up 37 percent of total onshore production inup from 12 percent in Continued exploitation of the Bakken shale formation and the startup of oil shale liquids production after also contribute to the growth in onshore oil production.

Clearly, if deepwater production is scaled myopia correction diagram, this will have an impact on future US crude oil production. Forecast Use of Liquid Fuels by Sector When one looks at consumption by sector, it is pretty clear that the EIA is not expecting a big increase in electric cars. Instead, transportation use of oil is expected to grow, even with planned efficiency improvements.

Electricity Generation by Fuel The EIA expects that inthe vast majority of electricity generation will be from coal and natural gas, with increases in production taking place in both.

Renewables are expected to grow bybut here again renewables are defined broadly, and the big piece - hydroelectric- has not been growing historically. Renewable Generation Growth Figure C - Expected electricity generation by fuel source, for renewable fuels, based on downloaded reference case forecasts.

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Here, I have put together a graph of expected generation by renewable source, based on EIA forecasts. Hydroelectric is the largest, but is not expected to increase much.

The biggest growth is expected to be in biomass. It would seem as though the large increase here would conflict with the large increase in biomass used myopia correction diagram biofuels shown above.

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Wind is expected to roughly increase to four times its amount by At this level, látás myopia would still provide less generation than hydropower does today.

Summary The EIA in its forecasts is expecting very large growth from renewables, but even myopia correction diagram this growth, fossil fuels are expected to continue to provide the vast majority of energy rossz látással táncolni to The "new" renewables are expected to grow rapidly, but the "old" renewables are expected to grow much more slowly.

There is good reason to suspect EIA forecasts are too high, both for renewable energy and for other energy sources. The "new" renewables show very large increases. It is not clear that they are attainable. Also, if there is a conscious effort to scale back fossil fuel usage, this may reduce fossil fuel use going forward.

If renewable energy sources are already estimated optimistically, total fuel use may drop by more than the forecasts would suggest.